Analisis Peramalan Penjualan (Forecasting) Roti Bond-Bond Dengan Metode Time Series Pada Morlano Balibond Orlendy (Mbo) Di Kecamatan Tanggul Kabupaten Jember

Pristiana, Dwinta Ayu (2022) Analisis Peramalan Penjualan (Forecasting) Roti Bond-Bond Dengan Metode Time Series Pada Morlano Balibond Orlendy (Mbo) Di Kecamatan Tanggul Kabupaten Jember. Diploma thesis, Politeknik Negeri Jember.

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Abstract

The rapid development of the industry requires an entrepreneur to really pay attention to product quality and set strategies to develop his business in order to compete and survive in the market. In addition, changes in lifestyle are one of the triggering factors for changes in lifestyle and consumption patterns in the community. Bread is one of the food choices that have been consumed by many people and is very popular in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to determine the preferred quantitative forecasting method to predict bond-bond bread products at Morlano Balibond Orlendy (MBO) and to analyze sales forecasting (Forecasting) on bond-bond bread one year using the preferred forecasting method. Forecasting is a very important tool in estimating how much demand (demand). There are two approaches in forecasting a business, namely qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis (Rangkuti, 2003). This study uses several quantitative forecasting methods, namely the moving average method, the exponential smoothing method and the trend analysis method. For forecasting results that have the right results to predict the next sales, based on the results of MAD (Mean Absolute Deviation), MSE (Mean Squared Error) and MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) (Render & Heizer, 2009). Keywords: forecasting, time series method, MAD, MSE, MAPE.

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