Sistem Informasi Peramalan Penjualan Obat Menggunakan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing (Studi Kasus : Klinik Ampel Sehat Kecamatan Wuluhan)

Wajhah, Ali (2021) Sistem Informasi Peramalan Penjualan Obat Menggunakan Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing (Studi Kasus : Klinik Ampel Sehat Kecamatan Wuluhan). Undergraduate thesis, Politeknik Negeri Jember.

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Abstract

In the world of health, the need for medicinal products is very high. For the fulfillment of these medicinal products, the existence of a pharmacy service in a hospital or clinic is very important for the management of drug availability. Management of drug availability that only uses assumption calculations or by manual method, namely determining the amount of drug purchases that are exactly the same as the number of purchases one month earlier. This often results in errors in determining the amount of drug purchases. If the purchase of drugs is too much, it will cause stockpiles of drugs to accumulate in the warehouse and have an impact on expiration. Meanwhile, if the purchase of drugs is too little, it will cause shortages and even vacancies in drug stocks when the demand for drugs is high. For that we need a forecasting system and analysis that can determine the amount of drug purchases in the next period, so that drug supplies are maintained properly and meet patient demand The results of research with triple exponential smoothing obtained the most optimal alpha value, which is 0.1 for all drugs. The drug with the highest forecasting results is Bionicom C with a MAPE value of 7.58%, which means that the forecasting results are at the level of 10% and below which is very accurate. Meanwhile, for some drugs that have been tested the average MAPE value ranges from 10-25%.

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