SISTEM PERAMALAN PENENTUAN STOK PRODUK SKINCARE BERBASIS WEBSITE DENGAN METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (STUDI KASUS PADA DISTRIBUTOR PERSONAL BEAUTY JEMBER)

Bramantya, Mochammad Lembar Adjie (2021) SISTEM PERAMALAN PENENTUAN STOK PRODUK SKINCARE BERBASIS WEBSITE DENGAN METODE TRIPLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING (STUDI KASUS PADA DISTRIBUTOR PERSONAL BEAUTY JEMBER). Undergraduate thesis, Politeknik Negeri Jember.

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Abstract

Jember Personal Beauty Clinic is one of the beauty clinics in Jember Regency. Personal Beauty Jember has adequate supporting services including skin specialists, modern treatment equipment, and skincare products that already have BPOM licensing. Given that Personal Beauty has distributors that are spread out, it is necessary to provide a stock of sales of skincare/skincare products to minimize the occurrence of overstock or stock out and make the value of income more leverage. accurate forecasting is needed in the supply of products to be one of the most needed things in the Personal Beauty Jember Distributor so that the product stock that is carried out becomes more effective and efficient. The triple exponential smoothing method is a method that can be used in forecasting. Triple Exponential Smoothing can predict data based on a trend, an uptrend, or a downtrend. The results of the Triple Exponential Smoothing method, the average MAPE error of the triple exponential smoothing method is 57.771 percent, meaning that the average accuracy obtained from the triple exponential smoothing method reaches 42.229 percent with an alpha value of 0.3. Each Product has a different alpha value according to the data pattern.

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