Peramalan Frekuensi Pasien Asma Rawat Inap Dengan Metode Box-Jenkins Di Rumah Sakit Paru Jember Periode 2013-2015

Astuti, Robitha Frigit (2014) Peramalan Frekuensi Pasien Asma Rawat Inap Dengan Metode Box-Jenkins Di Rumah Sakit Paru Jember Periode 2013-2015. Undergraduate thesis, Politeknik Negeri Jember.

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Abstract

Asthma listed in the top ten causes of morbidity and mortality in Indonesia. The prevalence of asthma in Indonesia by 3.5% and asthma symptoms increased from 4.2% to 5.4%. In Jember Lung Hospital, asthma in the top 10 inpatient diagnoses in a row in the last three years. Forecasting is needed as a basis for decision-making and planning. Forecasting the number of patients with asthma hospitalizations in 2013-2015 were calculated using the Box-Jenkins method. The purpose of this study is to forecast the frequency of asthma patients on Inpatient Unit in Jember Lung Hospital 2013-2015 period using the BoxJenkins method. The results of this study are the frequency of asthmatic patients hospitalized in 2013-2015 amounted to 256 patients by the number of asthma patients by 7 patients each month. Based on the variable age of patients with asthma, the age group 0-14 years on average from 2013 to 2015 amounted to 1 patient each month, age group 15-49 years from 2013 to 2015 amounted to an average of 2-3 patients and 50+ year age group 2013-2015 amounted to an average of 3 patients. Based on the gender variable asthma patients, the female gender in 2013-2015 amounted to an average of 5 patients and male gender-year average from 2013 to 2015 amounted to 2 patients. Suggestions from this study is Jember Lung Hospital needs to improve health promotion related to the prevention and treatment of asthma. In addition, the hospital also need to provide special care for the patient is not infectious to anticipate the increasing number of nosocomial infections

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