Analisis Peramalan Kebutuhan Tempat Tidur Menggunakan Metode Arima Box Jenkins Di Rsud Dr. H. Slamet Martodirdjo Pamekasan

Mayana, Tiara Reza (2023) Analisis Peramalan Kebutuhan Tempat Tidur Menggunakan Metode Arima Box Jenkins Di Rsud Dr. H. Slamet Martodirdjo Pamekasan. Diploma thesis, Politeknik Negeri Jember.

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Abstract

One indicator of inpatient services called BOR (Bed Occupancy Rate), is the percentage of hospital bed usage with an ideal standard of 60-85%. The use of beds is one aspect that should be considered by hospital management. Based on the results of the research, it was found that inpatient services at Dr. H. Slamet Martodirdjo Hospital in 2013-2022 were not efficient. It is known that BOR values tend to be high in some inpatient wards each year, but tend to be low in another wards. This research intends to forecast the number of days of care and forecast the ideal bed requirements in order to achieve appropriate efficiency for the next 10 years. One method that can be used is forecasting. This research is descriptive quantitative with secondary data sources used in the form of daily recapitulation of hospitalization for each ward in 2013-2022. Data collection using SHRI documentation and observation with time series data analysis techniques using the ARIMA BOX JENKINS method. The results of this research indicate that forecasting the number of days of care (HP) in each ward varies, where the highest HP value is in 2024 in ward B of 15533 days, while the lowest number of HP is in 2025 in the pediatric ward of 2010 days. While the results of forecasting the highest TT needs are in 2024 in ward B of 66 TT and the lowest is in 2025 in the pediatric ward of 9 TT. Based on the results of forecasting the need for the number of beds in 2023-2032, it is known that there needs to be an addition and reduction in several inpatient wards so that it is necessary to equalize and plan for the relocation of beds in order to reach the point of efficiency. Keywords: Arima, Bed Needs, Forecasting, Relocation.

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