Forecasting sugarcane production in the Asembagus sugar factory

Harlianingtyas, Irma and Salim, Abdurrahman and Hartatie, Dian (2019) Forecasting sugarcane production in the Asembagus sugar factory. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 411 (1). 012022. ISSN 1755-1315

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Abstract

The production of the sugar industry is increasing from year to year because of the national sugar production and consumption. To achieve the level of production that can meet these needs, the government has requested a national sugar self-sufficiency policy. Estimation of sugarcane production has a big influence on the company's policy considerations to determine further production results. This study aims to predict the production of sugar cane that will be obtained by the Asembagus sugar factory for the next five years. The data used to predict are data from 1979 to 2018 obtained from secondary data from Asembagus factory registration results. The method used is the Box-Jenkins ARIMA method by comparing the measurement of forecasting results with the trend and exponential smoothing methods. The appropriate forecasting result is the ARIMA model (1,1,1) because it has a smaller error value than using other methods. Forecasting results for 2019 are 42055.6 tons in 2020 predicted 43222.9 tons in 2021 predicted to produce 44090.7 tons, in 2022 predicted 44788.2 tons and in 2023 predicted sugarcane production of 45389.2 tons.

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