Rofiq, Muhammad Farhan Mahbubi Ainur (2026) Prediksi Serangan Hama Padi Berdasarkan Data Iklim Menggunakan Algoritma Random Forest. Undergraduate thesis, Politeknik Negeri Jember.
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Abstract
Rice is the primary food commodity in Indonesia, with more than 90% of the population consuming it as a staple food. However, efforts to increase its productivity are continuously threatened by climate change, which influences the intensity of plant-disturbing organism (PDO) attacks. Brown Planthopper (BPH) and Stem Borer infestations have been identified as the primary threats to rice productivity. This study develops a climate-based prediction model for rice pest attack area using the Random Forest algorithm with the CRISP-DM methodology, and implements it in a website-based prediction system. Climate data comprising temperature, humidity, and rainfall were obtained from NASA POWER, while pest attack data were obtained from the DTPHP of Jember Regency covering the period 2020–2024. Evaluation results show that the Stem Borer model achieved an MAE of 0,1804 ha, RMSE of 0,2879 ha, and R² of 0,1890, while the BPH model yielded an MAE of 0,1954 ha, RMSE of 0,3157 ha, and R² of 0,0424. The website system was developed using the Laravel framework and FastAPI. This system is intended to serve as an early warning tool that estimates the tendency of pest attacks in the upcoming growing season based on current climate conditions.
| Item Type: | Thesis (Undergraduate) | ||||||
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| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Random Forest, Prediksi Serangan Hama Padi, Early Warning System, NASA POWER | ||||||
| Subjects: | 410 - Rumpun Ilmu Teknik > 450 - Teknik Elektro dan Informatika > 458 - Teknik Informatika 410 - Rumpun Ilmu Teknik > 450 - Teknik Elektro dan Informatika > 461 - Sistem Informasi 410 - Rumpun Ilmu Teknik > 450 - Teknik Elektro dan Informatika > 462 - Teknologi Informasi |
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| Divisions: | Jurusan Teknologi Informasi > Prodi D4 Teknik Informatika > Tugas Akhir | ||||||
| Depositing User: | Muhammad Farhan Mahbubi Ainur Rofiq | ||||||
| Date Deposited: | 15 Jul 2026 01:08 | ||||||
| Last Modified: | 15 Jul 2026 01:09 | ||||||
| URI: | https://sipora.polije.ac.id/id/eprint/57988 |
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