Pengembangan Aplikasi Peramalan Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak (PNBP) Politeknik Negeri Jember (El-NORA)

Pratama, Dimas Yudha (2021) Pengembangan Aplikasi Peramalan Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak (PNBP) Politeknik Negeri Jember (El-NORA). Undergraduate thesis, Politeknik Negeri Jember.

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Abstract

Non-Tax Revenue is one of the state revenues. State Polytechnic Of Jember (Polije) have job and function to serve education for peoples have non-tax revenue. Every year, Polije must set targets for the next 2 years using revenue and realization history. By Considering IT and Forecasting method, will help to set targets more optimal. First of all, author using data from 2018-2020 and processed using seasonal method (Holt Winter Method and Seasonal Arima Method). But after author have complete data (2015 - 2020) and see forecasting results, the result have big error rate and hard to tolerate it. After this, author change processing method to annual bases using Gray Model (GM 1,1) and Least Square Method. Result is good to tolerate, Gray Model (GM 1,1) have MAPE 1,143 % and Least Square Model have Mape 2,26 %. From UAT using questionnaire, the average value obtained for the system being developed is 3,95 and average value for forecasting is 3,67.

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