Sistem Peramalan Penjualan Kacang Mete Pada CV. Kanjaya Menggunakan Metode Moving Average

Cahya, Ridlowan Eka Nur (2024) Sistem Peramalan Penjualan Kacang Mete Pada CV. Kanjaya Menggunakan Metode Moving Average. Undergraduate thesis, Politeknik Negeri Jember,.

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Abstract

The Sales forecasting involves leveraging sales data to enhance the management of micro, small, and medium enterprises (UMKM) by improving operational efficiency and facilitating strategic decision-making. By implementing an efficient forecasting system, it is anticipated that CV. Kanjaya will be able to predict future sales, thereby aiding in inventory management and reducing unnecessary production costs. This study aims to develop a sales forecasting system for cashew nuts at CV. Kanjaya using the three-period moving average method. The analysis results indicate that this method yields an accuracy level with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 24.79%, which can be categorized as fairly accurate. The findings reveal that the moving average method is suitable for sales data with stable trends and short periods (12 months) like those of CV. Kanjaya, but it has limitations with highly fluctuating data and rapid changes. Although it provides an estimate of sales, the forecasting results should not be used as a definitive guide for determining production quantities due to the MAPE value still being above 20%. Caution is necessary when using the moving average method for data with significant changes or high fluctuations. The findings of this study offer practical insights into the application of simple forecasting methods, which can be utilized by UMKM with short sales data ranges.

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